Fed Chair Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole sent out a clear hawkish signal. Key takeaways in three points: 1. The U.S. economy might be stronger than the market expects; 2. AI investments could drive a new wave of productivity growth; 3. Inflation is still significantly above the 2% target. Before the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September was around 35%. After the speech, it jumped to over 60%. This spot is seriously a hot seat—dovish stance risks a currency crash, rate hikes risk a U.S. bond crash, and rate cuts risk an inflation spike.