Sigh, every time I feel lost, I just want to scroll through Twitter to look for answers. But I’ve realized that most of the time, 99% of what people post is meaningless and lacks first-principles thinking. They always explain things from unimportant angles. From my observation, in secondary markets, you can basically only trust the opinions of those with a lot of money. Having money doesn’t necessarily mean they’re right, but at least they’re focused on the fundamentals. When they’re wrong, they lose less; when they’re right, they make massive gains. This tests human nature more than intelligence. For arbitrage, you can look at the strategies of smaller funds, because this often relies on intelligence. Many arbitrageurs are highly intelligent but can’t overcome human nature, so they end up farming or just buying spot. With contracts, they’re likely to lose money.