Murphy|Aug 19, 2026 04:04
Update: The indicator mentioned in the '2026 Bottom Signal Series 1' — Profit/Loss Supply Distribution
As a real-time snapshot of the cost distribution across the entire market, every price fluctuation causes a batch of BTC to shift between profit and loss.
When profit and loss intersect (red and green lines crossing), it means the price has fallen below the cost basis of half the market's holdings. This structural reset often corresponds to the bottom region of a cycle.
We first introduced this signal on June 10, when BTC was around 60k. At that time, the red and green lines had just touched. Between then and July 3, we observed a 'profit/loss intersection.'
But now, this signal has disappeared.
In other words, at similar price levels, the red and green lines have separated again. This indicates that during this period of turnover, more holdings have moved into profit, and the number of losing positions has decreased.
In a bear market, an increase in profitable positions theoretically leads to greater selling pressure; this is something we need to keep monitoring.
Currently, there’s neither a left-side signal nor a right-side signal.
For investors accumulating positions in cycles, I personally think there’s no rush to add positions at this level, even though the price hasn’t changed much compared to June 10.
Instead, it’s better to wait for the next signal to appear — either another profit/loss intersection on the downside (left-side accumulation) or a breakout above the cost basis (right-side stop-loss).
This approach provides clearer trading targets and discipline, rather than acting impulsively.
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