The 60 day deadline for the ceasefire memorandum has expired, and there is a clear trend towards a long-term game between the United States and Iran. Yesterday, the MOU deadline expired without any substantial breakthrough: the US side clearly did not seek an extension, while Iran claimed that the deadline was "irrelevant" due to early US violations. The two sides still hold opposing positions on cross-strait navigation and the lifting of blockades. August 13th here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2087903125399011470? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A Finally, we talked about: "A potential risk: the long-term escalation of the US Iran game, which has not been particularly intensified, but the Strait of Hormuz still cannot be opened for a long time From a personal perspective, the long-term trend is becoming increasingly evident. Looking at a few points: 1. Iran's side 1) Reuters reported that Iran has turned to a "full-scale offensive" posture due to the stalemate and is preparing to escalate in Hormuz and the wider region; If diplomacy fails, a "timely and precise" military attack will be launched to break the US Navy blockade. Give the US a few weeks to resume contact. During the ceasefire period, Iran was also actively preparing for war and expanding its military production of armed militias; 2) A few days ago, Iran began offering a reward of about 30000 US dollars (or equivalent) for the arrest/killing of US military personnel; 3) Last week, Mujtaba led a series of important personnel changes within Iran: Former Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Reza, was appointed as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and also appointed as the representative of the Supreme Leader on the council; Abdullahi is a Major General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was appointed as the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces on August 10th. He is responsible for promoting the integration of the Armed Forces General Staff and the Central Headquarters of Hattam Anbia Wahidi remained in office and was promoted to Major General on August 10th, officially appointed as the Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran; Taib was the former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence organization and appointed as the head of the Baski militia organization. At the same time, the Deputy Commander in Chief of the Revolutionary Guard and the Commander in Chief of the Navy were also appointed. It can be seen that Mujtaba's control over Iran's internal power is increasing, and he is no longer just a "puppet" as many people say. As we have discussed before, the core of the conflict in July is that Iran wants to firmly control the Strait of Hormuz and not give up at all. It still looks tough at this point. 2. Looking at the United States again 1) Trump recently accepted Fox News interview and other occasions to emphasize that Iran should "raise the white flag and surrender"; I don't have a timetable... I'm not in a hurry. "The midterm elections are not related to decision-making. Iranian officials' want to reach an agreement, but it won't be the kind I think is necessary '; The primary goal is that Iran must never possess nuclear weapons in any form. Threat to Oman: 'If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them', later added that Oman 'didn't perform well', but the US is' easy to handle '. 2) Last week, Besent said he would impose stronger economic sanctions on Iran looks like 1) Iran uses control of the strait as a lever to advance bilateral arrangements with Oman and prepare for upgrades; Trump had to admit that Iran had control of the Strait because Iran held the Strait card and gambled that the Strait of Hormuz was impassable and the oil price was rising, the inflation in the United States was unbearable, and public opinion was boiling; 2) The United States insists on the nuclear red line and free passage through the strait through blockade, threats, and "no rush" pressure; The strong blockade and economic sanctions imposed by the United States on the Iranian coast are actually a gamble on the increasing economic pressure within Iran, the boiling of public grievances, and the need to back down. At this point, it will be found that in the end, which of the United States and Iran says that the people have stronger tolerance and more endurance. It seems that Iran has a stronger tolerance and a weaker voice among the people. But it seems that Trump cannot accept that Iran really controls the Strait now. Not only can't I lose face, but I can't suppress it either (there are even louder voices of opposition domestically). In this situation, the two sides will continue to be deadlocked, and the longer the stalemate, the harder it will be to control oil prices. At certain times, it will still exert pressure and cause fluctuations in the market. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'