The Nasdaq 100 quickly rebounded from around 27,500 and is now back above the critical resistance level of 30,000. I’m starting to get cautious—no rush to chase it! The reason is simple: around 30,100, it’s hitting a downward trendline that’s been in place for months. Previous highs were all suppressed by this line. Whether it can break through this time will determine if the trend is reversing or if it’s just another rally followed by a pullback. What I’m more worried about is a false breakout. If the index keeps surging between 30,100 and 30,500 but can’t hold steady, it means there’s still overhead resistance, and the current rally is just a strong rebound at best. The macro environment isn’t loose enough to go all-in bullish. While the market is pricing in rate cuts, inflation remains sticky, and interest rates haven’t entered a full downward cycle. The Nasdaq’s current high valuation is still largely supported by the earnings of a few tech giants. The AI narrative isn’t over, but the market is starting to ask: with such high capital expenditures, when will it turn into profits? Key levels to watch: 30,200–30,500 is the resistance zone. A breakout with volume above 30,500–30,700, followed by a successful retest, would signal a stronger trend, with the next target around 31,500. If it can’t break 30,500 and then falls below 29,500, the correction might restart. First target would be 28,000, and if that doesn’t hold, then 26,300. I won’t jump to conclusions just because the chart looks like a rounded top. Tops need price confirmation. So my plan is straightforward: No chasing longs before a breakout. Around resistance, I’ll prepare for a pullback. If it holds above 30,700, I’ll admit I was wrong and wait for a retest before following the trend. Chasing now is betting on a breakout. Waiting for confirmation means trading on a breakout that’s already happened.