Bitcoin is closing red today, right below support, and we've now pierced below the cloud a second time, which is predictive price action telling me lower prices are coming. The macro trend is still bearish, the TBO slow line is angling down, and I'm watching my support steps as the next targets: first the 60,182 to 61,300 zone, then just below 60K, then a break of 57,800 that sends us down toward 49,000. I'm not ruling out a flash crash below 40,000 either, since the market has surprised everyone before, but even a drop to 49K would be one of the weakest pullbacks in Bitcoin's history based on the prior 84% and 77% drawdowns. Ethereum lost short-term support and keeps failing to push through TBO resistance, and on-balance volume is curling down just like it did before the last leg lower. Stablecoin dominance hasn't closed above the cloud yet, but I'm expecting it to soon, and I'm watching for a TBO open long as the green light for the next pullback across crypto. The Totally Yes chart, which represents the whole market cap excluding stablecoins, is closing below support today too, and that's about as strong a bearish signal as you can get for the entire space, even while individual coins do their own thing. On the macro side, DXY closed up slightly with no real reaction to the CPI print, and I'm watching for it to tag the fast line at 100.255 before deciding if it rejects lower or breaks higher, which would be bad for stocks and Bitcoin. USDJPY is still the most important chart to me, and the Goldilocks scenario is a wick up to the fast line followed by a drop below 155.025, which lines up with why I think the US is working closely with Japan to avoid a repeat of the 2024 yen carry unwind crash. S&P Futures RSI is putting in lower highs while VIX is sliding toward TBL support at 13.35, which I think marks a local top before a bit of a speed bump. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 04:28 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 07:17 Bitcoin Dominance Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 10:36 TRUMP Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 14:43 S&P Futures and Equity Risk 19:21 Gold Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 23:51 BNB and TRUMP Parabolic RSI Raises Exhaustion Risk 26:49 Curve Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 31:25 ISRG Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 34:56 FET Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 40:00 SpaceX Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 43:12 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals(Aaron Dishner)