小龙先生|8月 12, 2026 13:56
3D Integrated Trading System | BTC Evening Strategy Update
——BTC rebounded to 64500 but was blocked. After tonight's CPI hit the ground, the direction became clearer. So, what is the future direction?
The CPI data in the United States has landed as expected, and Bitcoin has been priced and rebounded in advance, turning positive news into negative news. How can we proceed with this?
1、 Market Review
BTC rebounded from a bottom of 63238 today and surged to 64500 in the afternoon, but then quickly fell back, currently trading near 64000, with a 24-hour drop of about 0.47%.
The intraday high and low points were 64500/63238, with a fluctuation range of approximately $1277. A long upper shadow indicates a significant selling pressure above 64500, with clear signals of rebound obstruction. Coupled with the realization of favorable conditions, the price will operate according to its internal logic.
2、 The relationship between quantity and price
At the 4H level, it rebounded to 64240; Subsequently, at 20:00, it surged to 64500 and fell back, with the volume decreasing again and the rebound volume not synchronously amplifying.
Rushing high and shrinking volume indicates insufficient willingness to chase high funds, and the bullish power is diminishing. Long positions were already weak, and the price rebound was only due to the sluggishness of short positions.
The daily trading volume has significantly decreased compared to the previous day, belonging to the sub volume energy level. The daily volume price deviation remains valid, with decreasing trading volume and unchanged medium-term bearish structure.
3、 Spatial location
We have been using the Fibonacci framework recently, anchoring the 57800 → 67500 interval, with the key positions as follows:
(1) 0.382 is located at 63795 and has fallen below, turning into short-term resistance;
(2) 0.5 is located at 62650, which is the core target position;
(3) 0.618 is located at 61505 and is the ultimate goal.
64500 has been verified twice today as a short-term strong resistance (rising and falling+long shadow), forming short-term psychological support around 64000.
4、 Long short signal check
Doing multiple things: Both the long conditions and signals are not met.
In terms of short selling, there are signals of volume depletion (rebound contraction), and the daily volume price divergence remains valid. The obstruction of 64500 has formed a long upward shadow confirmation, and the three core signals are uniformly bearish in direction. Short selling meets three conditions.
Overall, the long signal is zero and the short signal is strong.
My core judgment
The bullish volume fluctuation curve continues to decline (see the blue trading volume fluctuation curve in the figure below), and the daily volume price deviates. The price rebound is repeatedly blocked at 64500, and the daily volume price deviation remains effective. The medium-term bearish structure remains unchanged.
The CPI data has been implemented, and according to the core rules of the system, only three-dimensional signals are used to determine the short-term direction. The current three-dimensional signal points towards the sky, and CPI only affects instantaneous fluctuations without changing short-term direction judgments.
Best Trading Strategy:
(1) Radical: light short position test in the range of 64000-64300, stop loss 64600, first target 63795, main target 62650;
(2) Steady: Wait for the direction of the linkage after the US stock market opens. If it rises to 64500-64800, it will be blocked and then short, or wait until it falls below 63795 to confirm and follow up on the right side;
(3) Position: 3-5%. If it falls below 62650 and is confirmed, the position can be increased to 5-8%.
It is estimated that Bitcoin will likely experience a downward adjustment in the future, with a final target price of around 62650.
Have you shorted around 64500? What is the trading plan? Welcome to the comment section to discuss your judgment.
Only by understanding the quantity and flow of funds can we understand the trend direction.
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