Pre Market Thoughts - 11 Aug 26 US yields higher by about 3-4bps across the curve alongside the move higher in oil. We had a flurry of headlines overnight of varying importance. First is a rather direct admission by the US about their relative impotence in Iran, which presumably means the conflict stews for longer in a low grade conflict. Which isnt a terrible thing at the end of the day. Next is NVDA Jenson rounding up 6 major counterparties for a 500B financing deal. This number seems oddly specific. My guess is that the recipients of these will be SPCX and the neoclouds. What NVDA is doing here is credit transformation and making financing datacenters akin to financing real estate vs venture. GPUs as collateral are still feared because of their depreciation. Having fungibility in the asset class also makes it easier to be priced and traded; hence lowering the overall cost of credit and capital within the space. In short, this is neocloud summer. The market did not take it very well on the outset however, In asia markets, KOSPI is up about 1% (JP on holiday - Mountain day - nani??). In my note yesterday i highlighted that positioning in $0660 has lightened up. It is also insanely funny to me that my notable counter signals turned bearish on memory right at the turn....$0660 has held its levels at 1.4m KRW. On the earnings calendar (use http://terminal.gambit.zone) - we have LITE and CRWV reporting AMC - with an implied move about 11.6% and 13.5% respectively for both. To note, LITE has already done a -10% move pre earnings, generally this sets up for a better PA into earnings all else equal. Gold, Silver, Copper are all also breaking out - in my note on 7 Aug, i noted the short positioning across the XAG complex. This still sits there and will lead to strong follow on buying as shorts capitulate. While talking to a few of you, i noticed that many people are saddened by the PA. You want that explosive easy money that we had in May-June. Unfortunately, the investor base that made that happen (Leo, 2x etf buyers, koreans) are all liquidated. The current investor base bidding memory are those who are swooping in because the stock is cheap. These buyers are patient capital. This was also why i wrote in my note on 30 Jul that "what will ensure will be an initial V shape bounce before dribbling down and a slow grind up". It is far more important to be able to last the journey. AI is a transformational technology for our societies to build out. The best and brightest are heavily invested in it. The amount of capex that society is pushing towards it marks this closer to the start than to the end. Dont fomo buy the top, dont panic sell the bottom. Good luck!(degentrading)