**[U.S. Stock Market CAPE Rises to 42x, Valuation Approaching Dot-Com Bubble Levels, Returns Over the Next Decade May Face Pressure]** BlockBeats News, August 10 — As of August 7, the Shiller Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Shiller PE, CAPE) for the S&P 500 Index rose to 42.39x, significantly higher than the long-term average of 17.40x. This is just below the historical peak of 44.19x during the dot-com bubble and exceeds the valuation level of 32.56x prior to the 1929 Great Crash. Currently, this marks only the second time in history that CAPE has entered the extreme range of over 40x. Analysts point out that the CAPE metric is primarily used to measure long-term investment return expectations rather than to predict short-term market tops. Historically, cases of CAPE exceeding 40x have almost exclusively occurred during the dot-com bubble period from 1999 to 2000. Therefore, it is overly simplistic to infer that the U.S. stock market will inevitably enter a "lost decade" over the next ten years based on a single bubble cycle. However, high valuations indicate that the long-term margin for error in U.S. stock valuations is shrinking. Future market returns will rely more on sustained corporate earnings exceeding expectations rather than further valuation expansion. The market believes that the productivity gains, improved profit margins, and corporate earnings growth driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) wave may help sustain high valuations for a longer period. Nonetheless, if AI-driven earnings fail to meet expectations or real interest rates continue to rise, the high-valuation environment could amplify market adjustment pressures. The core signal released by CAPE is that the expected return rate for U.S. stocks over the next decade may face downward pressure. However, this indicator does not directly imply that the U.S. stock market is about to peak, nor does it guarantee that actual returns over the next decade will necessarily be negative. (Jin10)