Murphy
Murphy|Aug 07, 2026 02:00
It's been such a long time! From February until now, the market has given us six months to place our bets. Can't help but think back to March to October of 2024—same kind of indecision, same test of patience. But times change. Back then it was a bull market, now it's a bear market. In a bull market, the energy builds upward, but who knows if now it's building downward? Isn't there an old saying: 'The longer it consolidates, the harder it falls'? Regardless, I still have unwavering confidence in the future market! Over the past six months, BTC has been hovering around one key line: <10y Realized Price — A reference line that excludes BTC held for over 10 years from the cost basis, providing a closer approximation to the market's average cost. As shown in the chart, during the past three cycles, this line was a strong resistance, but in this cycle, it's become support. Can you believe it? I've been wondering, could this be the market speaking to us? It's testing whether we can understand its language, whether we have the patience. 'Sellers gave up below the average cost; buyers saw opportunity below the average cost.' If supply and demand hadn't reached equilibrium, how could it have held here for so long? As the saying goes, the longer the consolidation, the higher the breakout. With chips fully exchanged again, let's hope the next bull market builds on this foundation and surprises us all.
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