qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Aug 05, 2026 09:47
In the past two months, RKLB's stock price has been like a flood, rising from 150 to 60. I don't know if I thought the small rocket would explode and go bankrupt. However, when the order was received, the hands were soft: 1) In late June, NASA selected RKLB to carry out three Electron specific launch missions for PolSIR and TSIS-2 scientific missions. Belonging to NASA's VADR contract framework; 2) Announced the completion of the acquisition of Iridium Communications at the end of June. Entering the field of satellite communication and data services; 3) In late July, the US Space Force awarded RKLB a multi launch contract worth approximately $266 million ($266M), awarded by Space Systems Command's Rocket Systems Launch Program (RSLP), for 12 suborbital launches (up to an additional 6 options) to support the development of missile defense capabilities. The first launch is expected to take place no earlier than the end of 2026, primarily from the new site in Kodiak, Alaska. This was the company's largest launch contract at that time. 4) On July 30th, RKLB signed three Electron specific launch multi launch agreements with Japan's iQPS, deploying one QPS-SAR synthetic aperture radar satellite to a low Earth orbit of approximately 575 kilometers per mission to expand the iQPS Earth imaging constellation. Launch from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand, planned to begin at the end of 2027. This is the third multi launch agreement announced by both parties within a year (with a total of 18 reserved Electron launches). 5) On August 1st, RKLB was selected for the US Space Force's NITE-STAR IDIQ program. The Space Force selected 15 companies, including Rocket Lab, to enter into a contract worth up to $981 million ($981M) for the development of space testing and training infrastructure (satellites, sensors, ground systems, etc.). This is the qualification for selection, and you can compete for specific task orders in the future. 6) On August 4th, the US Space Force awarded RKLB a contract worth approximately $397 million ($397M) to serve the Space Based Airborne Target Indication (SB-AMTI) program, led by the Office of Acquisition Execution (PAE) for the Space Based Sensing and Target Localization (SBST) program. Rocket Lab will develop, launch, and operate multiple advanced Flatellites (flat satellite designs equipped with sensors and low latency high bandwidth communication links) on the Neutron rocket, providing real-time detection and tracking of airborne threat data from security facilities. The contract includes an additional Flatelite option. For RKLB, it is a package of very positive signals, further consolidating its transformation from a "small launcher" to a "vertically integrated defense space system supplier". Especially the $397 million SB-AMTI contract on August 4th, combined with other orders from the past two months, is of significant importance. 1) Significantly improving order backlog and revenue visibility, Q1 backlog has increased by over 100% year-on-year to approximately $2.2 billion. Recently added, the backlog of orders has further increased and may have reached over 3 billion US dollars. 2) Verify the vertical integration mode and Neutron requirements The SB-AMTI contract is end-to-end: designing/manufacturing advanced Flatellites (flat satellites optimized for large-scale constellations), launching with the soon to be maiden flight Neutron, operating from safety facilities and providing real-time data/tracking information. This directly recognizes Rocket Lab's integrated capabilities of launch, spacecraft, and mission operations, and is also a major endorsement for Neutron's government clients (which have already been commercially booked). Neutron still aims for its first flight in Q4 2026 (previously postponed due to tank testing and other issues), and such contracts can help reduce demand risks and accelerate production capacity 3) Strengthen national defense/security positioning and open up higher value opportunities RKLB has won multiple contracts related to the US Space Force/SDA (previously including orders worth over $800 million for SDA Tracking Layer). From suborbital HASTE testing, to space-based airborne moving target indication (SB-AMTI, replacing/supplementing traditional airborne early warning aircraft), to testing and training infrastructure (NITE-STAR), the coverage has expanded. This enhances its position as a "trusted defense prime" and is conducive to participating in more competition for large-scale projects such as the Golden Dome. These positive developments at the business level may drive a wave of market trends for RKLB in August and September. Can't we just keep getting beaten up The most crucial thing in the second half of the year is whether the Neutron can successfully make its maiden flight.
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