Analysis: Bitcoin May Maintain $58K-$67K Range in August, Breakthrough Requires Macro and Capital Catalysts

BlockBeats News, August 5th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr released the August Bitcoin market outlook, stating that BTC has currently retraced approximately 50% from the cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025. The price is now close to the comprehensive on-chain cost basis, and it is expected that August will likely see a consolidation trend. The report suggests that the most probable scenario for August (approximately 55% probability) is BTC trading within the $57,700-$67,000 range, with the month potentially closing between $60,000 and $64,000. The bearish scenario (30% probability) involves a drop below $57,700, further testing the on-chain realized price of approximately $52,800. The bullish scenario (15% probability) requires BTC to stabilize above $67,000, accompanied by sustained ETF capital inflows, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, targeting $71,000-$74,000. Currently, the valuation is close to the on-chain cost basis, and spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, providing support for the market. However, the high-interest-rate environment, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar continue to limit the upside potential for risk assets. The report also advises paying attention to macro events in August, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI data, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, which could impact market liquidity. [Original Link]