Art of Speculation|Aug 05, 2026 02:57
What insights do stock market options provide now?
At present, the index is still in a strong upward trend, and the options market is beginning to release some signals.
Firstly, although the S&P 500 has reached a historic high, there have been numerous call sales around 7900. This means that many institutions have not continued to chase the rise, selling Call at high levels to collect premium fees, believing that the space for the index to continue to rise rapidly in the short term is limited.
The 7500-7800 range gathers a large amount of Gamma. As the index continues to rise, market makers need to constantly sell existing stocks for hedging in order to maintain Delta neutrality. Therefore, the closer it is to 7800 or above, the greater the hedging selling pressure from dealers may be. The higher the index rises, the stronger the resistance will be, making it easier to enter a high-level oscillation or correction digestion stage. So if there is a high of 7600-7620 before the callback, it is a good opportunity to go long.
VIX has now deviated from the index. Under normal circumstances, if the index rises sharply, the VIX should continue to decline. However, this time the VIX closed at 16.39, indicating that while the market is rising, there are still funds buying protection and risk hedging. Currently, the area around 17 is the most important negative Gamma region in VIX. If the VIX breaks through 17 and stabilizes above 17.8, the volatility is likely to quickly surge towards 20, corresponding to a significant oscillation or even short-term adjustment in the index.
QQ has not yet synchronized with S&P to reach new highs.
This indicates that this round of rise is more dependent on non tech sectors, and semiconductors are relatively weak. If the subsequent technology stocks cannot relay, QQQ is likely to need to first step back to the 710-720 or even 700-710 range to complete chip cleaning before deciding on the next round direction.
High volatility or a healthy small correction, digest overbought and option positions, and then decide to continue challenging higher targets.
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