Definitely a bit strange! Over the past two days, long-term holders (LTH) have suddenly started moving their holdings on a large scale. For two consecutive days, more than 65k $BTC have been moved (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a significant drop in LTH net holdings. As shown in Figure 2, LTH net holdings have been breaking the previous upward trend since May and have been "stagnant" through July. This is an extremely rare phenomenon over the past year. Among these, nearly 14k $BTC were transferred to exchanges. For example, Trump’s publicly listed company moved 2,628 $BTC into the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this activity. As for the rest of the LTH net reductions, where they went and for what purpose, we have no idea. Could it be that they know something and are choosing to hedge in advance? If we’re talking about potential macro risks, especially those that could impact $BTC, here are the ones that come to mind: 1⃣ The possibility of a Fed rate hike. This time, the vote was split 9:3, the most dissenting votes since September 2016. 2⃣ The Middle East conflict and oil prices, which are the biggest variables for inflation and directly tied to point 1. 3⃣ The U.S. stock market’s AI sector has highly concentrated valuations, and capital expenditures are increasingly reliant on debt and private credit financing. If revenue falls short of expectations and financing costs rise, it could trigger systemic deleveraging. 4⃣ Yen carry trade positions have once again piled up to one-sided net shorts, crowded and nearing historically extreme levels. Anything else? Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments, friends. Lastly, the current sensitivity of $BTC’s holding structure could also amplify the potential risks mentioned above. -------------------------------- Of course, this doesn’t mean these things will definitely happen. It’s just speculation based on the unusual behavior we’re seeing from LTH. When something unusual happens, there’s always a reason behind it. Keep a close eye on LTH behavior in the near term. If large-scale distribution continues, it will inevitably put pressure on the market. If it’s just a temporary, isolated action, then the impact will be minimal.