小龙先生
小龙先生|Aug 02, 2026 14:29
Six Dimensional Trading System of US Stocks | Today's One Stock Can MU Micron stocks still be shorted? ——Six dimensional system analysis of the $840 position Current price: around $840 (after August 2nd). On July 31st, it rebounded to 927 during trading, but then quickly fell back. On August 1st, it closed at 823840, becoming a key position in the recent long short game. My conclusion is that the area around 840 has the value of a short selling game, but it requires strict control of positions and fast entry and exit. Because the profit to loss ratio here is not high! 1、 The underlying logic of short selling 1. Michael Burry has gone short three times, with a clear bearish stance Michael Burry, known as the 'big bear', has been continuously short selling at three price levels: 1051, 933, and 880. His core logic points directly to the "circular financing" of the AI industry chain, where Micron is both an HBM supplier for Anthropic and a participant in the financing of Anthropic Series H, and the money goes back to its own account. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a warning that Burry is shorting this cyclical structure, not just the storage cycle. 2. Technical breakthrough, rebound hindered at 0.382 Falling from a high of 1255 to 739, rebounding to 927 happens to be the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. Any rebound not exceeding 0.382 can only be considered as a downtrend relay. There are also multiple medium-term moving averages suppressing the area around 840, and the 850-927 range above is densely trapped. 3. Changxin Technology's listing rewrites the global DRAM narrative Changxin Technology's listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board surged 470%, with its market value topping the A-share market. Apple CEO Cook has applied for an exemption from the US government, hoping to use Changxin and Changjiang storage chips in overseas products. As one of Apple's main suppliers, Micron's approval will directly impact its procurement dependence. 2、 Key risks of short selling The biggest risk of shorting MU now is a trend reversal. Out of 46 Wall Street analysts, 40 have given a "buy" rating, with a consensus target price of approximately $1522. The bullish logic is equally solid: Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (+346%), net profit of $28.8 billion, signing long-term supply agreements worth $22 billion with 16 customers, and HBM production capacity being sold out in the next two years. The CEO clearly stated that the supply shortage will continue beyond 2027. The essence of this round of decline is the valuation reshaping of the "AI sustainable growth narrative" by the expectation of the cycle peaking. If Q4 performance proves again that 'AI demand has not slowed down', the bearish logic will be quickly broken through. 3、 Core Principles of Position Management Total position: Short positions should not exceed 3-5% of the total funds; Stop loss price: 860-870 (if you maintain a steady position with high volume, the bearish logic will be falsified) First objective: 790-800 Second objective: 740-750 Extreme target: 680-700 (0.5 retracement level) Position discipline: Immediately exit upon reaching stop loss, do not carry orders. There is a great divergence between long and short positions at position 840: the bears have Burry sitting in+technical breakthrough+Changxin narrative, while the bulls have the strongest historical performance+AI demand+major customer lock-in. The current STS composite signal is: cautious bearish, but this is not a one-sided opportunity, it is a game position where "stop loss is close and take profit has room". Hey guys, do you dare to go short on the $840 MU stock? Can you overcome your inner fear and short it lightly when it opens on Monday? Welcome to the comment section to discuss trading techniques and short selling strategies together.
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