This NUPL indicator tells me: the true capitulation bottom hasn’t arrived yet! Looking at cycle bottoms: In the late bear markets of 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, NUPL consistently dropped below the 0 line. When NUPL turns negative, it means that, based on the average on-chain cost, the entire BTC network has entered an unrealized loss. This phase is usually accompanied by: - Panic selling from high-entry buyers; - Redistribution of short- and long-term holdings; - Market sentiment shifting into fear or capitulation. The 0 line isn’t just an ordinary threshold. When NUPL drops from positive to negative, it signifies the market transitioning from “profit-taking” to “capital loss.” Currently, NUPL has already fallen from the previous high to the 0–0.25 range. This indicates that most paper profits have been compressed, the market has clearly moved away from the greed zone, but the overall network is still in unrealized profit. We haven’t seen the full-scale capitulation typical of historical bear market bottoms. In other words: This doesn’t feel like a cycle top, but it’s also not the textbook ultimate bear market bottom. It’s more like a transition zone between “hope and fear.” What happens next? Two possible paths to watch: 1️⃣ If BTC regains strength and NUPL rises back above 0.5, it signals the start of a new profit expansion cycle. However, the closer we get to historical highs, the more profit-taking risk will accumulate. 2️⃣ If BTC continues to drop and NUPL falls below the 0 line, it means the entire network has entered an overall unrealized loss. The panic release at that point could actually signal a higher-quality cycle bottom. Personally, I think the key isn’t whether NUPL will drop below 0, but rather: if the price hits a new low, will NUPL also hit a new low? If the price goes lower but NUPL doesn’t worsen, it means the expansion of losses is slowing, and selling pressure might be nearing exhaustion. So here’s the question: If BTC stabilizes while NUPL is still positive, will you choose to start accumulating early on the left side? Or will you wait for NUPL to drop below 0 and the entire network to capitulate before making your move?