"Although 'on-chain data' and 'technical indicators' are two completely different dimensions — the former is based on UTXO algorithms, while the latter is rooted in volume and price — they often resonate with each other. Maybe it's a case of different paths leading to the same destination, where, at the 'right time,' they both point to the same outcome. For example, in our July 29 tweet, we mentioned that the BTC realized net profit and loss curve hit two extreme negative values in February and June, forming a divergence with price on a macro level (see referenced tweet). This was a signal interpreted from on-chain behavior, indicating 'seller exhaustion and net loss convergence.' At the same time, similar signals were also appearing in technical indicators. The trend-following CCI indicator showed a weekly oversold signal (red dots). Over the past five years, this signal has appeared only four times: November 2018, March 2020, June 2022, and November 2025. However, the oversold signal only reflects the intensity of 'that moment.' What truly matters is the subsequent sustained convergence of the curve and its divergence from price. Additionally, if signals of 'downward momentum exhaustion' emerge during the follow-up process, it suggests that the downward force is gradually being absorbed. I interpret this as the precursor to a trend reversal; while slow, the direction is clear. Combining 'on-chain data' and 'technical indicators,' the conclusions are: 1⃣ The macro-level downtrend is nearing its end — this is certain. 2⃣ What’s uncertain is whether there will be a 'black swan' event like November 2022, which would only further confirm the sustained divergence of the CCI. 3⃣ Going all-in on the 'final dip' caused by a black swan is irrational. That’s not trading — it’s gambling. 4⃣ At this point, there’s no reason to be overly bearish anymore. Time won’t favor the bears." #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #OnChainData #TechnicalIndicators