Murphy
Murphy|Jul 30, 2026 10:08
Where’s the real bear market bottom? No one can be 100% sure. A lot of the time, we get stuck in our own obsessions, always hoping to chase the perfect price and maximize profits. As an investor who relies on data and indicators to build a trading system, I often find myself lost and doubting my own judgment. Take predicting the bear market bottom, for example: If I say the bottom is already in, I can point to plenty of solid data and examples, like PSIP dropping below 50%, realized losses showing bullish divergence, etc. If I say the bottom hasn’t arrived yet, I know there are still some common historical bottom signals that haven’t appeared. For instance, the price hasn’t dropped below LTH-RP, and NUPL hasn’t entered the capitulation zone yet. If I’m holding no positions, my obsession leans toward the latter—I’m imagining BTC hitting $50K, waiting for all the conditions to align perfectly, and then going all-in. If I’m fully invested, my obsession leans toward the former—just holding on with a good experience until the next cycle’s peak, then exiting freely. But there’s no “if.” All we have is the choice we make in this very moment! So today, let’s not get caught up in rigid indicators. Let’s start with the raw data, peel back the layers, and try to uncover the real story behind the numbers. Find that blurry direction for the future and make a relatively correct decision. Let go of obsessions, and make peace with yourself…
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