RamenPanda|7月 29, 2026 09:17
What should we do if the US bond market is blocked due to AI?
From this year to next year, big companies suddenly started borrowing money crazily, occupying the entire quota of the US corporate bond market
In the past decade or so, this tech giant never borrowed money and had so much cash in their accounts that they couldn't spend it all. They repurchased stocks every day
Last year, things started to change. Starting from 2025, there will be a surge in bond issuance, with nearly $200 billion issued just halfway through 2026. Major companies have found that AI data centers are burning too much money, and the money they earn is not enough to spend, so they can only go out and borrow
But!
There is plenty of money in the bond market. The amount of bonds that insurance companies and pension funds can buy each year is basically a fixed pool of water
Now the big companies are coming over with pots, aiming to scoop up nearly 9% of the total bond market money in one go this year. And they have high ratings, large scale, and heavy index weight, so funds must be allocated. If the fund wants to buy them, it has to sell its other bonds
Companies with average qualifications, such as real estate and energy, will have a large amount of debt due for renewal next year. When they try to borrow money, they find themselves unable to make it onto the queue and can only offer higher interest rates, or simply cannot borrow at all
So, if the public bond market can't keep up, where will the money go?
Detour - SPV, asset securitization, private equity lending, such as Meta, Oracle, xAI are all involved, but these channels offer much higher interest rates
Financing has shifted from public bonds to off balance sheet and private equity, and 'money is starting to become expensive'. When money becomes expensive, capital expenditures need to be recalculated, which will compress downstream semiconductor orders and cause stock prices to have problems and be revalued
Now the market is falling, this is what's being hyped up!
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