🏛️ FED WATCH Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike. Citadel Securities disagrees, expecting Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of the forward-guidance era. With markets split, today's decision and Warsh's remarks could set the tone for the rest of 2026. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?utm_source=walterbloomberg(*Walter Bloomberg)