[Probability of 'US-Iran Ceasefire Before July 24' Drops to 36% on Polymarket, Down 15% in 24 Hours] Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that the probability of 'US-Iran ceasefire before July 24' on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, a 15% decrease in the past 24 hours. For this event, if the United States refrains from taking any defined military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline, the outcome will settle as 'Yes'; otherwise, it will settle as 'No.' Qualifying military actions include airstrikes or ground-to-ground missile attacks initiated by the United States directly targeting Iranian territory, such as bombings, air-to-ground missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Actions that do not qualify include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery strikes, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions. If disputes arise regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await official information and consensus from credible media for resolution. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at the time. Settlement criteria include official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments or military, as well as credible media reports. Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize opportunities.