[Galaxy Research Director: Probability of CLARITY Act Passing This Year Drops to 30%] BlockBeats News, July 24 – Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn stated in an article that the probability of the CLARITY Act being legislated by 2026 has been lowered from the previous 50% to 30%. Thorn pointed out that although the comprehensive text of the bill was officially released this Wednesday, spanning 616 pages and 104 provisions, there is currently a significant vote gap. On the Republican side, Senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against the bill, and McConnell has not voted since being hospitalized in June. The reliable vote count stands at approximately 50 votes, falling short of the 60-vote threshold required to overcome prolonged debate. On the Democratic side, seven senators who previously participated in negotiations issued a joint statement criticizing the current text as "insufficient," particularly opposing the bill's ethics provisions, which rely solely on enforcement by the Department of Justice, and the 2029 sunset clause. Additionally, Elizabeth Warren directly stated that the bill "should be rejected." Regarding the legislative timeline, Thorn believes the practical deadline for progress is July 30 (Wednesday), rather than the Senate's officially announced recess date of August 7, citing the procedural timeline requiring several days. He noted that if the bill fails to pass the Senate before the recess, its prospects of becoming law by 2026 will be significantly diminished. [Original Link]