Analysis: Bitcoin profit supply accounts for nearly 60%, but bull market confirmation is still too early Odaily Planet Daily News: The overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on chain data shows that it is still not enough to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there is still a risk of another downturn in the market. CryptoQuant data shows that the supply in profit ratio of Bitcoin has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market with prices higher than holding costs, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%. However, the recovery of the profit supply ratio still needs to be continuously verified. Historical cycles show that the real end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30 day simple moving average of the Long Term Holders' Profit Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) indicator remains above 1 and does not fall below it within a few weeks; Secondly, the proportion of profitable supply of Bitcoin needs to remain stable at over 64%. Analysts say that there has already been a "false breakthrough" in this cycle before. From April 28th to June 1st this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the proportion of profitable supply rose to 67% at one point, but then the market fell back again. At present, the long-term holder's 30 day SMA index has been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, which is still an important risk signal for judging the strength of market recovery. Although the profit supply ratio of BTC is improving, the market needs further confirmation of long-term holder behavior and changes in profit structure in order to determine whether the current rebound has truly turned into a new upward cycle.