Probability of 'Trump Pardoning SBF Before July 31' on Polymarket Drops Below 1%, No Additional Deadlines Added

According to Foresight News, the probability of 'Trump pardoning SBF before July 31' on the Polymarket betting market has dropped below 1%, with the market's trading volume reaching approximately $836,000. Currently, Polymarket has not opened prediction markets for other expiration dates related to this forecast. According to market rules, if SBF receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or stay of execution from Trump before 11:59 AM on August 1, 2026, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." If Trump is objectively unable to issue a federal pardon within this timeframe, the market may immediately settle as "No." Settlement will primarily rely on official information from the U.S. government, with widespread reporting from credible media outlets also serving as reference. Previously, Foresight News reported that the U.S. Senate passed a resolution opposing any pardon for FTX founder SBF, stating that SBF 'should not receive a pardon or commutation under any circumstances.'