degentrading|7月 22, 2026 09:46
Pre Market Thoughts - 22 Jul 26
In asia trading both NKY and KOSPI had a strong surge in the morning before closing down almost unchanged. $0660 hit a high of almost 2m KRW before fading back down to yesterday's levels. Likewise with $285A hitting 68k before fluttering back down to 63k levels.
The focus today is all on the first of the hyperscaler earnings GOOG. Like what i mentioned yesterday, most moves will be pre positioning close outs. Yesterday's rapid melt up was likely the effect of shorts closing into an illiquid book. The next continuation or break of the semis recovery will hinge on the capex cadence guidance AND profitability by the hyperscalers.
GOOG's expectations for capex in 2026 is between 180b -190b. The most important words will be on whether even capex in 2026 accelerates as well as the capex guidance for 2027 and beyond. The cloud backlog for GOOG in Q1 was already at 462B. Most analyst are projecting capex growth to decelerate in 2028. If any visibility is provided here (i think not), this could also be a game changer for the market.
For semis, i think it will be critical for both the hyperscalers to beat on profits as well as indicate for higher capex. This is because weak profits while indicating for higher capex will require the market to be willing to fund capex via equity or debt - this will require a premium and likely be painful overall.
Away from equities, SLV is getting interesting to look at. The risk reversal for SLV has tilted away into puts, given that SLV is back at the support ranges, i think this creates a credible set up for a strong performance by precious metals into 2H.
On nuclear - OKLO and XE have both been selected for a 200M trump admin program to speed up nuclear power plants for DCs. Post compute, i think these are the 2 tickers that are poised for the greatest gains. However, again - nuclear will take time and the revenues are far away on timeline.
Going into the NY session, i would expect muted activity as most people focus on the earnings.
Good luck!(degentrading)
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