The 4-year bitcoin cycle is a mirage (in my opinion). It is not solely what drives crypto cycles. Not even close. And that is phenomenal news for BTC and altcoin holders alike. Every major BTC bull... 2013, 2016-17, 2020-21, happened with ISM PMI above 50 and rising (look at the chart in this video). Every deep bear happened below 50 or rolling over. Not halvings. The business cycle. "But 2023-2025?" We had monumental ETF access and election flows from an insanely bullish narrative. The gains were real but it was never THE bull. That's why it felt grinding instead of expansive for Bitcoin. "But 2014..." PMI was above 50 in parts of 2014 bear because the business cycle was topping out. The upward expansion of that cycle was over. Look at the insane crypto bull market btc just had with the expansion. Now: PMI above 50 six months running. Russell 2000 broke its 2021 ATH. Copper/gold turning up off multi-year lows. Leading indicators doing what they do at the front end of expansions. Productivity boom. Intro 00:00 Risk and inflation 1:15 PMI vs 4 year cycle 5:15 BTC price action and caution 13:00 Ethereum bull confirmation 15:30(Dan Gambardello)