Cease fire or full-scale war - the window of choice for the final days of the US Iran conflict Axios recently revealed that the United States and Israel have compressed the outcome of the Iran War into two options. The first one is to accept the 10 day ceasefire proposed by regional countries and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The second is for the United States and Israel to launch a larger scale joint military operation, attempting to force Tehran to make comprehensive concessions. Trump has not yet made a final decision, but American officials believe that in the next few days, it will be decided whether the war will move towards a ceasefire or a comprehensive escalation. This ceasefire plan was not unilaterally proposed by Iran, but was jointly promoted by mediators from Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, Oman and other regions. It has now been submitted to both the United States and Iran. The United States is studying a plan and requesting Israel to temporarily avoid taking action to close diplomatic windows. However, at the same time, the US military has deployed dozens of fighter jets and aerial refueling planes to the Middle East, and the Israeli military has entered a high state of alert, preparing to rapidly expand military operations in the event of failed negotiations. The most crucial controversy among them is whether Iran can charge Hormuz. The solution discussed by the mediator is not to allow Iran to directly levy tolls on all transit vessels, but to allow Iran to charge reasonable fees for maritime security, environmental protection, and other specific services, following the model of the Strait of Malacca. Another option is to put the costs into a joint fund managed by the International Maritime Organization, which would retain a certain amount of revenue for Iran and prevent the Strait of Hormuz from becoming a private toll station for Iran. At present, neither the United States nor Iran has accepted a ceasefire and both hope to continue using military action to increase their bargaining power before the ceasefire. The United States has bombed Iran for 10 consecutive nights, but still has not broken Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. At least three American soldiers have died in the new round of conflict, and Trump has demanded that the Pentagon make Iran pay several times the price for each American soldier's death. Iran continues to attack merchant ships and Gulf energy facilities, with oil prices once exceeding $90 per barrel. The Houthis have announced the blockade of Saudi ports, and the war is spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and the entire Gulf. If the negotiations fail in the coming days, the United States and Israel are likely to directly enter into a larger scale joint military operation. If the negotiations are successful, the toll collection and long-term navigation mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz will become the true core of the next stage. But no matter how high the oil price is, it will not last too long. If it is a full-scale war, it may indeed push up the oil price trend in the short term, but the result will inevitably be the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the suppression of Iran's firepower. If it is to maintain peace, it will be even simpler. And personally, I don't think we will enter into a full-scale war. It's more about gaining political negotiation capital through local wars. The current trend of oil prices also represents a market tendency that the United States and Iran will not enter a full-scale war, as oil prices are starting to decline. Short selling WTI and Brant is still the right choice. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market