星球日报|7月 21, 2026 10:42
[WTI Crude Oil July Breaks $85/Barrel Probability Rises to 75% on Polymarket]
Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that in the Polymarket event 'WTI Crude Oil Price Hits Target in July,' the market estimates a 75% probability of WTI crude oil breaking $85/barrel, a 32% probability of breaking $90/barrel, and a 17% probability of breaking $95/barrel. According to market rules, if the highest price (High) of the WTI main contract's 1-minute K-line during July trading touches or exceeds the corresponding target price, the event will be determined as Yes.
Previously, as U.S.-Iran relations eased and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increased, concerns over market supply disruptions subsided, causing WTI crude oil prices to quickly retreat from conflict-driven highs to around $70/barrel. However, recent renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with rising risks to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, have reignited concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, driving oil prices to rebound.
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