Today's Market Take a quick look before heading out... 1. The capital flow is currently very bullish, so be cautious about shorting before 68k... 1) ETFs have been seeing continuous inflows for a week now. Chart 1 shows an indicator I created based on the Coinbase premium. By subtracting the USDC/USDT exchange rate difference from the real-time Coinbase premium, I calculated the actual Coinbase premium (labeled as 'True Venue' in the chart). Then, I used this actual premium to calculate the z-score. The pre-market and intraday premium z-scores are highly correlated with ETF inflows or outflows (see the lower part of Chart 1). As of this morning, the premium still points to a net inflow of ETFs today. 2) Both spot and futures CVD (Chart 2) are also in a "buy, buy, buy" state... 3) Not only are ETFs buying, but on-chain funds are also buying. Yesterday, the net outflow from exchanges was close to 10,000 BTC in a single day... This afternoon during the Asian session, there was a high-volume entry model that already failed... but it hasn’t exhausted itself yet. So, I’m being cautious about shorting today... At least until it drops below 68k, near the short-term on-chain holding cost (see Chart 3). ------------ 2. Looking at the order book and heatmap model... there’s no heatmap above 66k right now (Chart 4). I can’t bring myself to short here... Let’s see if there’s a heatmap around 67k. There’s a medium-sized order cluster for both futures and spot around 67k... ---------- (To be continued)