[Probability of Bab-el-Mandeb Strait Closure by End of August Rises to 21% on Polymarket] Odaily Planet Daily News: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closing by August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning. The probability of closure by September 30 once climbed to 26%. The Yemeni Houthi group Ansar Allah announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the action is based on the principle of 'an eye for an eye,' with the goal of disrupting Saudi crude oil exports. The affected route involves the transportation of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract is determined based on maritime trade flow data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait falls to or below 10 on any date between the market creation and expiration date, the contract will be judged as 'Yes.'