DC大于C|Jul 20, 2026 15:33
This morning, added a bit more short position around 84 on WTI.
By evening, Iran suddenly said they wanted to ease tensions and announced a 10-day ceasefire, causing oil prices to briefly approach $80.
Then came a maritime ban targeting Saudi Arabia, and oil prices immediately rebounded to around 81.5, fluctuating there.
As Iran mentioned, 'fighting while negotiating' is happening simultaneously, so there hasn’t been further escalation.
But just now, the news broke: 'Trump has sent fighter jets to the Middle East.'
Still, oil prices didn’t surge, and third-party intermediary countries are actively mediating to push for a ceasefire. The dialogue window is still open—it all depends on Trump’s next moves.
This week, there’s not much macro data; the focus is mainly on geopolitics, which impacts inflation expectations. Anyway, both sides don’t have much time left.
July has less than two weeks remaining. As long as oil prices stay in the low range (below 85),
the inflation data for July, released in August, won’t look bad, and rate hike expectations will be further diminished. Fingers crossed.
DYOR
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