The latest update on the U.S. CLARITY Act: Prediction market Polymarket data shows the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to around 32%! The CLARITY Act is the biggest variable for Bitcoin's price action this week, but the uncertainty is extremely high right now. Current status: The draft has not been released, and this week is the final window. According to multiple sources, lawmakers had previously pushed to release a consolidated draft during the week of July 13 and aimed for a Senate vote during the week of July 20. However, the draft has yet to be published, and time is running out. The consolidated draft on July 14 removed the ethics provisions insisted upon by Democrats, leading Gillibrand to explicitly state, "No enforceable ethics language, no Democratic votes," with Warren joining the opposition camp. The Senate Republicans hold 53 seats, but 60 votes are needed to end the debate, requiring at least 7 Democrats to cross the aisle. Congress has a hard recess deadline of August 7, leaving July 20 and July 27 as the final two voting windows. At the moment, the probability of passage remains low. BTC rebounded from 62.8K to 64.8K, partially pricing in expectations of "possible progress this week." According to the latest data from prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to a historic low of around 32%. If a delay or failure is confirmed, this premium is likely to be given back. In other words, if the CLARITY Act is rejected, Bitcoin's price will likely fall back above 60K and enter another wide-ranging consolidation phase.