Pre market thoughts - 20 Jul 26 All eyes on Korea today with the JP market close. The price action in KOSPI was muted with KOSPI closing down 4.5% to make up for the distance lost on friday. $0660 rallied at the start before shedding gains. Post the $7709 rebalancing, $0660 has rebounded back to the 1.8m KRW level. What is more interesting today is actually in China - Post Kimi and Moonshot, $100 HK and $2513 HK are both severely down on the day. $100 HK back at $200 HKD levels while $2513 is down 20% from the day and 60% from ATHs. Alot of the price movement in $2513 comes from the unlock. Personally, i think $100 HK is at levels that are interesting to me again. On a fundamental level $100 HK needs to find its north star again as Meta's models are also competitive with the chinese models on pricing. In this thin pre market tape, we see the market starting to reprice neos. Kimi's restriction on usage has percolated into mainstream consciousness that we are indeed compute constrained. The market for compute is global as well, hence the chinese providers are also not necessarily much cheaper. While constructing Shells in China may be cheaper - these accounts for about 40% of the capex cost only and is depreciated over 15-20 years. For the newer GPU models, the shell cost shrinks to 20% of the overall costs as GPUs become increasingly more expensive. This week, we have the first of the hyperscaler earnings on Wednesday (check the calender at http://terminal.gambit.zone) - GOOG with an expectation of 116.5B in rev and 2.86 in EPS. What i will look out for is the capex cadence and their thoughts on their compute constraints. Good luck!(degentrading)