The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped more than 20% from its peak, confirming entry into a technical bear market. The market is worried about excessive AI capital expenditure, with Goldman Sachs and Nomura warning that technical deterioration could trigger negative feedback. AI trading faces a performance validation window, while competition in China's AI models intensifies. The launch of Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4 may accelerate the commercialization of AI capabilities.