Yigol|7月 18, 2026 14:00
I think the market is entering a very critical phase: AI hasn’t peaked yet, but the era of 'blindly buying AI' might be temporarily over.
The recent sharp fluctuations in semiconductor stocks have led many to interpret it as the collapse of the AI narrative.
I actually don’t think that’s the case.
What’s really changing is—
The market is shifting from 'growth pricing' to 'valuation pricing.'
Over the past year, as long as HBM prices increased and AI capital expenditures rose, the Micron, SK Hynix, and NVIDIA supply chain could continuously enjoy valuation premiums.
But when expectations are already high enough:
Good performance merely meets expectations.
Slightly below expectations? That’s when valuations get hit.
So right now, I wouldn’t simply interpret 'tech stocks falling = all risk assets are bearish.'
I’m more focused on where the money is heading next.
First, Bitcoin.
The core of BTC trading isn’t AI orders; it’s global dollar liquidity.
If tech stocks continue to see valuation cuts, but BTC starts showing clear resilience or even leads the way upward, this would be a very important signal of capital rotation:
Risk appetite hasn’t disappeared; it’s just shifting assets.
Second, gold.
If gold continues to strengthen while BTC and tech stocks are both weak, it indicates the market is trading on risk aversion rather than liquidity expansion.
In this kind of environment, I wouldn’t rush to bottom-fish risk assets.
Third, Micron and SK Hynix.
I’d wait for them to complete their valuation compression rather than trying to guess the lowest point.
Because the truly worthwhile buying point isn’t necessarily when the stock drops the most, but rather:
When the stock price stops making new lows on bad news.
Next, I’m only watching three signals:
Whether BTC can decouple from tech stocks and lead upward;
Whether gold continues to absorb risk-averse capital;
Whether semiconductors show 'bad news without falling.'
If these three signals start changing simultaneously,
The next trading opportunity might not just be a simple 'AI rebound.'
It could be a true—
Global capital reallocation.
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