ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ|7月 16, 2026 19:42
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN...
If this happens, the global energy system breaks in a way it has never broken before.
Iran didn't escalate militarily. They picked up the phone.
One call to Yemen.
One instruction to the Houthis.
CLOSE THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT.
And just like that the world goes from one blocked chokepoint to two.
Most people couldn't find Bab el-Mandeb on a map.
Here's why it suddenly matters more than almost anything else in the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply.
That's the number everyone has been watching for three weeks.
Bab el-Mandeb handles another 7% plus the majority of container shipping between Asia and Europe.
Every cargo ship that doesn't want to spend three extra weeks sailing around Africa.
Goes through that 18-mile corridor between Yemen and Djibouti.
Here's what just happened and why it's different from everything that came before it:
Add them together.
If the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb while the US blockade holds in Hormuz over 25% of total global oil supply is simultaneously blocked.
At two separate points. Controlled by two separate actors. With two separate military situations to resolve.
There is no precedent for this.
Not in modern history.
Not in any supply shock that economists have modeled.
Not in any scenario that central banks have a policy response for.
25% of global oil doesn't get rerouted.
It doesn't get replaced.
It doesn't get managed with strategic reserves that were built for weeks not months.
It disappears from the market until both straits reopen.
Oil at $90 was the Hormuz scenario.
Two straits simultaneously is a number that hasn't been publicly modeled because until today it wasn't considered a realistic single-event risk.
It is now.
And here's what makes this particularly dangerous for markets.
The Houthis are not Iran.
The US can negotiate with Iran however slowly and painfully that process works. The Houthis operate on a different logic entirely.
They've been under sustained military pressure for years and it hasn't changed their behavior once.
Closing Bab el-Mandeb is not a threat for them.
It's a capability they've already demonstrated.
They shut down Red Sea shipping for months in 2024.
They know exactly how to do it.
Iran just gave them the instruction.
Every supply chain model built for a world with functioning sea lanes needs to be rebuilt tonight.
Every inflation projection that assumed energy normalization needs a new assumption.
Every Fed model that was pointing toward eventual rate cuts needs to account for an energy shock with no visible end date.
Markets open tomorrow into a world where 25% of global oil supply is potentially hours away from simultaneous blockade.
That number has never been price, ever
This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here.
When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon.
Many will regret not following me earlier...(ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ)
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