July 12 Market Analysis BTC is currently around 64,170, with a 24-hour high of 64,480 and a low of 63,660. On the technical side, the price is above the 1-hour EMA20 at 64,120 and EMA60 at 63,900. The price is also above the 4-hour EMA20 at 63,780 and EMA60 at 62,760. The 1-hour RSI is 51, the 4-hour RSI is 57, and the daily RSI is 53—none of the three timeframes have entered the overbought zone. The 4-hour MACD is above the zero line, with DIF at 307, DEA at 296, and 22 red bars remaining. The trend hasn’t turned bearish, but the upward momentum is weaker than before. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands show the middle band at 64,160, the upper band at 64,460, and the lower band at 63,870. The funding rate for contracts is 0.0038%, with open interest close to $2 billion. The funding rate is not high, and there’s no obvious overcrowding on the long side. Looking at ETF data, there was a net outflow of $84.9 million on July 8, a net outflow of $95.3 million on July 9, and a net inflow of $90.4 million on July 10. Today’s biggest headline is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. has completed its third round of strikes on Iran this week, and multiple Gulf countries have sounded air raid alarms. The daily passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 130 before the conflict to around 22. Oil prices rose nearly 5% last week, which could amplify the volatility of risk assets when markets open next week. On-chain, there are two BTC-related updates: Empery Digital has sold 1,400 BTC over the past two months to invest in AI data centers. At the same time, an address has withdrawn nearly $100 million worth of ETH and WBTC from Binance. From a macro perspective, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.55%, and the Dollar Index is at 100.96. The objective conclusion from the data is that the technical structure and ETF flows for the day are bullish, but geopolitical risks and U.S. Treasury yields are external pressures. The direction is only long. Long entry zone: 64,100 to 63,870. First target: 64,460. Second target: 64,480. If broken, look for 65,000. Stop loss below 63,500.