laogo.ai|7月 11, 2026 08:36
On-Chain Structure: Bottom Formation Progressing, But Not Yet Complete
The latest report from Glassnode shows that BTC has been trading below the following levels for about five months:
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: ~$72,200
- True Market Mean: ~$76,600
Long-term holder realized losses now account for approximately 43% of total realized value, peaking at around $280M/day — the highest since December 2022. Meanwhile, derivative positions have significantly deleveraged, but the options curve remains defensively skewed.
Additionally, about 6% of BTC's circulating supply last changed hands in the $58k–$64k range, forming a strong on-chain cost support. BTC's 200-week moving average is around $62,873.
Potential Impact: Medium-term bullish, short-term mixed.
The cost-dense zones provide solid support, but the realized losses by long-term holders have not significantly cooled off, indicating that selling pressure hasn’t fully subsided.
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