Bill The Investor|Jul 11, 2026 00:06
Check out the World Cup predictions from AI/supercomputer models (I’m betting on Norway—either I strike it rich or go broke):
1. Opta Supercomputer (the most well-known football data model)
• Pre-tournament/early stage: Spain was the top favorite (about 16% chance of winning), simulated 25,000 times.
• France and Argentina followed closely. Highlighted Spain’s balanced squad and strong form post-Euro Cup.
• Current stage: Adjusted based on match results, France’s probability has risen (semifinals in sight), but Spain remains strong.
2. Goldman Sachs model
• Pre-tournament update: Spain had the highest chance of winning (around 24-26%), far ahead of other teams.
• Top three: Spain, France, Argentina (combined nearly 60% probability). Likely final: Spain vs Argentina/France.
• Factors include Elo ratings, player abilities, match schedules, and dynamic updates.
3. EA Sports FC game simulation
• Nailed multiple past winners (2010 Spain, 2014 Germany, 2018 France, 2022 Argentina).
• This year: Once again favors Spain to win.
4. Other mainstream AI/statistical models
• University/research institution models (e.g., University of Liverpool): Spain has the highest chance of winning (around 26%), with a potential final of Spain vs England, etc.
• Chinese mainstream large models (like Qianwen, Doubao, Wenxin Yiyan, DeepSeek, etc.): Most favor Spain (21-35% probability), some predict France or Argentina; Golden Boot often points to Mbappé.
• General AI (Copilot, Gemini, etc.): Spain/France tied as favorites, often predicting Spain to win or a final of Spain vs France.
Overall consensus: Spain is the top favorite across the majority of AI models, with France and Argentina as the main challengers. European teams dominate the predictions, with the final four often including Spain, France, England, and/or Argentina.
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