[Mitsubishi UFJ: Do Not Overinterpret Details of the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes] Reported by Golden Finance, July 8 — Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny stated that the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting tonight, but advised against overinterpreting the details of the minutes, as the context prior to the June meeting is significantly different from the current situation. The dot plot was likely submitted during the week before the meeting (the week ending June 12), and if the meeting were held now, the FOMC dot plot would not show nine members supporting a rate hike. In this regard, the pricing of rate hikes in the overnight index swap curve appears to be overly high. Currently, the probability of a rate hike at the July 29 meeting is priced at nearly 30%, which seems excessive given the weakening labor market data. By March 2027, the market has priced in nearly 40 basis points of rate hikes, but we believe the likelihood of rate cuts by then is greater than that of rate hikes. (Jin10)