wu fan|Jul 08, 2026 07:57
A story
Believing early is no problem
Back in the day, 2-3 years ago
Those who followed me to buy NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, etc.
Even though we didn’t make a lot
At least we made money and walked away
Believing midway is also fine
Buying Intel before its earnings report in March-April and making 30% before exiting
Still made money and walked away
But if you didn’t believe at the start, didn’t believe midway, and only believed at the end
I kept saying it’s not that AI isn’t good enough
It’s that the valuation is too high
The margin of safety isn’t high enough, EV is unreasonable
When $BTC was at 17,000, I told you to go all in
You said it’s a bear market
I said wait for 42,000 for you to take over
In the end, you didn’t believe even at 42,000
Last August, when it was at 100-120k, I said it’s time to exit
You insisted it would go to 200k
Guess I’m the idiot
Most of the assets we can buy in the secondary market
Aren’t bad assets
The only difference, aside from whether it’s within your circle of competence
Is actually just the price
Summary of value investing: Circle of competence + margin of safety
5 years ago, I posted a good investment formula on Weibo
Good investment = good industry + good company + good price + no leverage + patience
Take $CRCL and plug it into the formula
Is dollar-cost averaging at a 10-20 billion market cap in line with the formula?
Now take those high-chasing buys of yours and plug them in, and see for yourself.
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