Aaron Dishner|7月 06, 2026 01:48
I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever.
Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think.
Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check
02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend
04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan
07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning
10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance
13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk
16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures
19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX
22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana
25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK
28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor
30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT
33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros
35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap(Aaron Dishner)
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