Aaron Dishner
Aaron Dishner|7月 06, 2026 01:48
I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap(Aaron Dishner)
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