BTC prices continue to repeatedly test new lows. At present, they have not fallen below the previous low, but it does not mean that they will rebound. There is a high probability that they will still break down in the future, and more than 80% of the probability will continue to fall. Yesterday, some brothers and sisters who were long could set up a break even policy I do not recognize the current range as having a triple bottom, parallel low point, or other bottom patterns, which is not suitable for heavy position buying and long positions. Long term long positions in this area are easily trapped; The recent rebound has continued to weaken, with a lack of trading opportunities during the consolidation phase and no strong reversal signals in the market. 2、 Core logic of fund rate (key to determining price fluctuations) The current funding rate remains high, and under this funding structure, the market is likely to continue to decline; To achieve an effective rebound, it is necessary to first fall below the previous low, suppress the capital rate, and have a large number of stop loss liquidation and negative capital rate before having the foundation for a rebound; If it is only a sideways oscillation and the fund structure remains unchanged, the rebound space and strength will be extremely limited. 3、 Two strategies for responding to market trends after breaking through levels Scenario 1: Rapid recovery after falling below the previous low Accompanied by a large number of stop loss positions and negative fund rates, a 4-hour/daily high volume bullish line is necessary for short-term game rebound; This rebound is only a short-term repair, and the overall trend remains downward after the rebound ends. If the rebound is weak, you can go short accordingly; The condition for truly initiating an upward trend is to shrink and consolidate the range, then increase the volume and break through the box, which is suitable for spot layout with multiple orders. Scenario 2: Unable to recover after falling below the previous low Directly initiating a rapid plunge market, there is no opportunity to go long, and prices will continue to decline in search of new oscillation ranges.