It's hard to fathom that in ~12 months, we'll likely have access to a model 2x more powerful than Fable 5. And that might be the conservative estimate, & model costs will likely be way cheaper at that point, too. Here's why: The best single measure of AI capability is Epoch's Capabilities Index (ECI) (a composite score across 40+ benchmarks - math, coding, science, reasoning). Think of it like an IQ test for frontier models. When Fable was released, it hit a new high of 161 on the ECI. Now here's the part that matters: The rate of frontier improvement nearly doubled around April 2024, from about 8 points per year to 15. That faster pace has now held across every single quarterly measurement cycle since then, and is the new trend. So, in theory, the trend that's held since 2024 just needs to continue in post-Fable 5 model releases, and the floor in 12 months is a 2-3x improvement in model capability. But the wildest stat isn't even the capability curve. It's the cost curve: The cost to run an AI model at a fixed level of performance is halving every 2 months. Put it together: In 12 months, you won't just have a model 2x more capable than Fable 5. You'll have it cheaper, faster, and possibly running on hardware you already own. We're so early.(Miles Deutscher)