FED HIKE RISK BACK ON THE TABLE Morgan Stanley still expects the Fed to hold rates this year—but flags risks. If unemployment drops below 4% or inflation stays elevated, rate hikes could return. Cooling oil prices and easing tariff effects support the no-hike view. Inflation is forecast near 3%, with modest job growth keeping labor stable. But stronger inflation or renewed geopolitical tensions could quickly shift the outlook.(*Walter Bloomberg)