小牛
小牛|6月 26, 2026 12:02
AI Economy: De duplication revenue of $110 billion, scaling speed three times faster than any historical IT wave Exponential View has obtained the most convincing quantitative evidence of AI monetization to date through bottom-up reconstruction of the generative AI economy: in the past 12 months, the global generative AI economy (excluding China, removing duplicate calculations between application layers, basic models, and infrastructure, and excluding chip manufacturing) has generated approximately $110 billion in actual revenue; After annualizing the revenue from the past month, the current operating rate has reached $175 billion. The 1.6-fold difference between the two is the most direct proof of the accelerated growth of AI revenue. More historic data comes from cross wave comparison: compare the revenue curve of generative AI (with January 2023 as the "zero year") side by side with the growth track of the Internet (1995), mobile applications (2007) and cloud computing (2010) after their respective starting points. The conclusion is clear: the revenue scale of GenAI in the third year (2026) is about three times that of any historical IT wave in the same period. The commercialization speed of AI is not only faster than history, but also by an order of magnitude. This data provides a key footnote to the current valuation controversy: Yes, the annual AI capital expenditure of ultra large scale cloud vendors is about $500 billion, far exceeding the current annualized revenue operating rate of $175 billion; But if the current growth rate continues, AI revenue is expected to reach the range of $300 billion to $500 billion between 2027 and 2028, at which point ROI will be clearly realized, and the unresolved debate over the value of AI capital expenditures will face a historic ruling.
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