Murphy
Murphy|Jun 26, 2026 05:01
As of 8:00 AM Beijing time on June 26th, the closing price of BTC was $59,794, which closely aligns with the Long Gamma range of options market makers ($59k-$60k). However, today is options expiry day, with a total nominal value of approximately $10.6 billion set to expire—making it the largest options expiry event of this quarter. Currently, about 20% of the options are in-the-money and are typically exercised upon expiry. The remaining 80% out-of-the-money options will expire worthless. After the structural reset, we now see that below $59,000—specifically in the $55,000-$58,000 range—everything falls into Short Gamma. If the price enters this range, the market makers' hedging mechanism will shift to "amplifying volatility" rather than "suppressing volatility," as it was before June 26th.
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