'White-Haired Stock God' Serenity: Continuous-Wave Laser May Become the Core Bottleneck of AI Optical Interconnects, Related Targets Hold Strategic Value

Odaily Planet Daily News – 'White-Haired Stock God' Serenity posted on the X platform, stating that in their view, the 'photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck' is one of the most critical investment directions in the current AI infrastructure sector. Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked the process by which Lumentum's (LITE) market cap grew from approximately $3 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion. The core reason behind this growth lies in the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and the transformation of optical network architecture. They believe the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (co-packaged optics) architectures are becoming the focus of a new wave of industry upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for resources in the continuous-wave laser and optical component supply chain. Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, which projects that the total addressable market (TAM) for optical communications could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to grow from near zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years. They stated that companies such as Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises hold strategic value and believe the market may once again see investment opportunities arising from EML laser supply shortages. Currently, they are personally focused on key targets within the continuous-wave laser supply chain, including SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), SIVE, and others.