Why is the AI mainline still strong tonight, but the US stock market is falling? I personally think the core reasons are these two: the 10-year US Treasury yield US10Y has risen to over 4.5% and the US dollar index Dxy has truly broken through. This is also the definition of the next two weeks as the stage of "high-level volatility and weakness, first preventing a pullback, and then seeing if it will be repaired in early July" discussed in the tweet "Prediction of US stock market trends in late June and early July" on Sunday 21st. The trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield US10y and the US dollar index Dxy coincides with the first two of the five main lines that affect the market discussed at that time: 1) Walsh's debut changed the market's comfort with the Fed On the 18th, with Walsh's debut, the Fed shifted from a "biased interest rate cut" to a "two-way risk", and even faced tail risk of interest rate hikes, causing the market to reprice short-term interest rates. Before the market is fully certain that the trend of inflation rebound has begun to reverse downwards, there will still be concerns in the market. The upward trend in yield naturally reflects this concern. 2) The breaking of the US dollar index is a new pressure item, and it is in the same direction as the Fed's repricing The impact of the strengthening of the US dollar on the US stock market is reflected in several aspects: suppressing risk appetite, causing damage to the overseas revenue conversion of multinational corporations, and if combined with the upward trend of 2-year returns, directly suppressing the overvaluation link. If the US dollar index breaks through, it will naturally put pressure on risk assets in the short term. The AI mainline is strong, and the third and fourth mainlines have not yet had an impact. These two mainlines are: Quarter end pension rebalancing and CTA mechanical flow; AI token economic audit; The specific methods of referencing tweets are elaborated in detail. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'