degentrading
degentrading|6月 17, 2026 10:15
pre mkt thoughts 17 Jun 26 Yields eased up a little more before FOMC. Asian markets were roughly up 1% - with SK Hynix at ATHs. $285A also sits at the top of the range at 96k. On monday, i called it as a good area to trim some profits before the inevitable hedging that would take place pre FOMC. That has happened yesterday - that weakness is what i term as the "last opportunity to deploy before we scale the FOMC wall of worry". The market IMO is slanted bearish. Given the easing in oil prices, i would say that the risk reward is tilted towards a dovish outcome. If you dont understand nuance - what i mean is. Monday take some profits into strength good. Tuesday, buy this weakness. Now - SIT TIGHT AND WAIT. Yesterday's weakness also offers up clues to what might perform - everything such as Memory, Photonics etc was hit....except Neoclouds. IMO - the neocloud sector is the most BULLISH sector to come - this is off the back of a market that is structurall short compute. Frontier models not available? good for compute. Sovereign AI buildout? Good for compute. Chinese models better? GOOD for compute. In short, the thesis for compute hinges on - IS AI MAKING MY LIFE BETTER? The answer to that is much simpler to answer than - "Is memory near a top" or whichever. There is not enough compute being built. Given that rentals command roughly a 20%+ IRR AND the fact that the depreciation schedule for GPUs is being stretched out because of inference and agentic demand .... this is the direct bull case for neoclouds. More and more people are starting to talk about it - if i had to put a finger on this - it would be roughly Nov 2025 for memory. We had early buyers continuing to bid memory as it pushed against historical valuation range highs. Within neoclouds, there are many players. Im picking NBIS because of Leopold's motion and their ability to monetise on spot compute prices increasing. CRWV CIFR WULF are other names in the basket. GLXY is also gaining attention. Good luck!(degentrading)
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